The analysis
It seems the long-term downtrend in AAPL could have ended and we may be seeing the beginning of a new uptrend here. That would be confirmed by AAPL holding its low around 385$ and, more important, making a new high above 470$. But the jackass in me has already jumped in at 427$.
Price action shows AAPL breaking its major downtrend line on March 18th, and retesting it successfully while making a new low around 385$, near the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the highs. My support stands between 420 and 430 (my exact support was around 427$ which is where I entered the trade). A negative here it that, while the prices are playing around the MM50 days, the MM50 stands well below the MM200 days which keeps falling.
In addition, the weekly stochastics have gone out of the oversold zone and rising, which is a sign of strength, while the daily stochastics are falling quickly and approaching the oversold zone. Finally, Relative Strength VS S&P500 (indicator labelled "RS (APPLE INC.)" on the weekly) is still showing strength.
All in all, a rather speculative bet, until new high is reached while preserving the previous low.
Bearish warning : a correction in global markets can happen anytime now. And the longer it takes to correct, the more violent that correction is likely to be.
On the fundamental side, I'm bearish Apple, as I've been saying for a while on this blog : Apple watch your back, Android is coming for you;)
The charts
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| AAPL weekly end of the downtrend? successfully retested previous downtrend line around 50% Fibo retracement, stochastics out of oversold zone, Relative Strength VS S&P500 still bullish |
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| AAPL daily, MM50 below MM200 and stochastics still falling but quickly reaching oversold zone |
