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Thursday, April 12, 2012

Pullback Over?

Time to show some charts. First, my favorite market leader, the SPXA50, the number of SPY stocks trading above their 50 day moving average:



As you can see, we’ve had a dip in the numbers, and haven’t reversed the trend yet. The dip wasn’t as low as they usually go, which means it was a weak pullback. But it was a pullback. Since we haven’t seen the trend change, I suspect there’s more down to go. So here’s the SPY chart, and my humble analysis



As you can see, the uptrend since November was broken (as we would expect from looking at the 3LB chart at the top). The downchannel which broke out of November’s upchannel is about ½ as wide, so the standard deviation on the downchannel is smaller. This means it’s easier to break out of the downchannel. I believe the algos are trendfollowers, so when the breakout happens, look out for significant pops to the upside. You can see a large down day, and we’re trading within that day’s range, so until we get out of the inside bar, we won’t know the direction of the market. Today looks like up to me, so today we may break out of that inside day trading. If we get out of the downchannel today, I suspect we will continue the November’s upchannel. If we don’t then look for a down day Friday.

A couple of things to note on this chart: the downchannel begins on the day of the highest high of the upchannel. Of course, you don’t know it’s a downchannel until the breakout happens and is confirmed by a second day. This downchannel is really short, only one day of real confirmation, with high volume as well, but the next day the volume was average, so no continued confirmation. Second, the Stochastics are oversold, and turning up. To me, I read this to mean the pullback’s over, and we will close above 138.40 today. If that happens, look for a move higher into the weekend, and a pop for Monday.

The last chart I want to present is AAPL.




Note it’s strong resemblance to the SPY. Could be that a) AAPL watchers play other stocks based on AAPL’s performance and b) AAPL is a very significant component of the marketplace. I use AAPL’s trend as a leading indicator of the SPY. Combined with a few others, like XOM and IBM, you watch those, and they will tell you the tells.

So after I posted this, I though you might like to see what the bots are doing. They are clearly trying to support the market by moving AAPL upward. There is a lot of non-bot pressure on AAPL downward, but look at what's happening:



For reference, look at the green line I drew on the volume, and you'll see what the trend was before the bots. Then suddenly at 13:09, the bots took over and started to control the tape. The first one at 13:11 or so tried to eat out all the sell orders, and was effective for 3 minutes. The next one at 13:33 tried the same thing and was successful until 13:39. Then another buy at 13:45 was unsuccessful. Again at 13:51, we see another attempt, which turned out to be successful and stop the fall at 621.

At 14:03, the bots tried another buy to push above the support line at 623 (in red) but was unsuccessful. I suspect another down leg as a result.

You'd think the bots would run out of money, right? Not so. They can borrow at 0% interest.

85 comments:

  1. @Rock, Apr 9, 2012 10:16 PM: wish you a very fulfilling retirement. From the little I know about you, tt seems you're worth it. :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. And sry for not being around here much lately. I'm not trading anymore. Got a new job, as I mentioned before.

    Also, spending some of my free time on trying to figure out what's going wrong and how to fix it. http://vulgarizator.wordpress.com/ will be my first try at it. First post will deal with the shameful deal that's called "ABACUS".

    ReplyDelete
  3. The easier it reads for people, the further justice will get to..

    ReplyDelete
  4. @Wolfstreet:

    good luck in your new job. Please dude drop in from time to time to let us know wassup over the pond. I'll check in over at vulgarizator from time-to-time.

    I dunno I'm worth much, but I'm making money almost every day at this trading thing. today's was kind of small, but all in all, this week's been pretty good for a market retracement week, since I don't short anymore (mostly). I will say that to keep up on everything is very time-consuming, and I wish my son or daughter would step in to partner with me. I think 2 or 3 people would do much better at this.

    They still haven't taken me off payroll. I think they're afraid I won't step in to help in the event of a catastrophe. They should know better by now.

    Anyway, will keep on keeping on trading. I've backtested and tested my new "longer timeframes" methods, and it's looking good, so that'll keep your brothers (wolves) from the door.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Well, we had our "another down leg. Let's see what the bots are doing. Pretty much they've backed out of AAPL so the consensus is to let the market go. Take a look at XOM and IBM, You'll see the most volatility is when the bots are active. Thpical 3-minute volume on IBM for example are around 14000 over 3 minutes. You'll see some movement when that volume hits 40000.

    I'm definitely looking to trade the bots, in addition to the stocks. The bots are trend followers, so when trends are broken and the volumes rise dramatically, I think you'll see the price move in the newly trending direction. Check it out.

    Two more things to note: after today's pullback, we are exactly in the middle of the downchannel. Just for fun, I turned on bollinger bands, and it says we're at the bottom of the range. But the bands missed entirely Tuesday's down move, so I still like drawing the 2 standard deviation channel.

    ReplyDelete
  6. In another news, the dying retail relic that is Best Buy - the CEO being investigated for misusing funds in relationship with subordinate:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/13/best-buy-ex-ceo-brian-dunn_n_1423154.html

    ReplyDelete
  7. @Mannwich:

    You know, I never was tempted to do that. Well, not exactly true, the temptation was there, but I never once followed through. I was always afraid she'd call me out on something I could do to help her out, and if I didn't she might rat me out.

    So it was fear. Purely selfish fear.

    And I'm glad I had that fear. I wonder why these guys dont, they must be really arrogant.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Isn't it interesting that N Korea can't launch a successful missile? I wonder why.

    Actually, I thought budgets were down and we weren't flying anymore. I guess the sat pics got us back in the air.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Looks like AAPL is going below 600.

    This is a significant pullback. Watch this one and when it starts to turn, it's time to buy.

    They're saying iPad is not selling out in the stores. They're forgetting that AAPL has little to no marketing/sales presence in much of the world. And their P/E ratio is really cheap.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Watch AAPL now. The trend from 15:15 was down on light volume, and the bots just did a 200K sell, and you're seeing AAPL trend downwards now.

    They're eating out all the sell stops, I'll bet there's huge order stuffing right now.

    ReplyDelete
  11. So I said don't short strength. Never short AAPL. Well, I didn't follow my advice, and put together a little short (one half position) and have made some steak money.

    There have been some other short possibilities. I will enumerate them this weekend and put up a new post with the biggest losers.

    These biggest losers may be the value stocks that the big money boys invest in when the market turns. So I'll be watching these biggest losers for a potential pop in the ensuing weeks. Several have already made my setup criteria for a buy, I just haven't bought yet because as I said above, I believe there's more down from here, and won't buy until the SPY breaks out of it's established and confirmed downchannel. That of course could take one day, but I'll need to see confirmation, so I won't be afraid to wait a day and be late to the party.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Rally fizzling here. Bad omen for Mr. Market, me-thinks.

    ReplyDelete
  13. I'm out of my AAPL short now when it double-bottomed at 588, and turned it around to a 1/2 position buy for the run-up this afternoon. It's looking good. I have a stop back at 588 for a break even, but I think the people that said it'd never see the 500's again were buyers and are providing a lot of support.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Bloomberg presented some margin data. Over the last 10 years, the sectors with the best margins were
    1. Biotech Life science, pharmas = 15%
    2. Banks = 12%
    3. Software and services 11%
    4. Household and personal products: 11%

    The worst were:
    Media, food, autos

    The companies with the highest margins were:
    Google, Microsoft, coke, Merck, Altria, Cisco, Intel

    The companies with the worst margins were:
    AIG, Sears, Ford, CBS, Time Warner

    Interesting information, eh?

    ReplyDelete
  15. The SPY's had 3 days with lower lows and lower highs. We gapped up this AM, but the gap's filled, and even beyond. Right now, at 137.30, the SPY's almost dead nuts on the middle of it's downchannel I posted above.

    So I don't think of this as a rally fizzle. I think of it as the SPY's not in any jeopardy of breaking out of its downchannel yet. So the pullback's still on.

    It's taking me longer than I thought to put together the list of the poorest performers. Maybe later today.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Looking at the SPY, we closed exactly on the middle of the down-channel, at 137.01.

    I'm thinking we will see a pop tomorrow morning, and I will sell into it, anticipating a close to the lower-side of the down-channel.

    ReplyDelete
  17. OK, looking at the biggest losers: I have selection criteria such that I can trade safely. That is, the candidates have to have enough volume and enough market cap so I won't get in the way of the big boys, and nobody will notice my little bitty trades. I don't go under $10 or over $120 in price. The day I started the analysis is 10 days ago, the first day the SPY started it's downchannel.

    So here's the list:
    30%: HALO IVN VPHM
    20%: BKS CHK ERF INFY ITMN
    15%: CRR ILMN INFY LGND PWE TSO VE VRTX
    10%: BAX CAR CIE CRZO CVC CVH EWP FAST GHL GPOR HMSY HNT INCY JCOM LGF MASI MOS NAV NTAP OIS PAAS SGY SYNA TAP TYH UTHR VLO XEC

    Now doing a little homework, you can look up the P/E, free cash flow, and quarter on quarter profit margins, and decide if you want to enter any when the market turns.

    I like NTAP. They have 9.8% profit margin, 12% operating margin, and on 5B in revenue, they have 1.34B in operating cash flow and 376M in levered free cash flow. Not bad numbers, at all. No reason to be down 10%.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Oh, and if you can't tell, I use fundimentals and psychologicals and structurals to determine what to buy, and I use the charts to tell me when to buy it.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Time can lead us out of oversold (and overbought) conditions. At this time, the SPY is breaking out of it's downchannel, not so much because of price movement up, but because of time passing.

    Some might call this a consolidation, some might call it a "bear flag), that is, after several lower price bars, there is a trading range, sometimes upward sloping. This pattern is often followed by a downward move, continuing the downward pattern.

    I don't trade patterns, I trade the tape. But it leads me to believe this is a turn-around Tuesday, and tomorrow we might end up lower again, perhaps falling back into the downchannel, or equally likely continuing the bear flag pattern, waiting for some news to move the markets.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Open gap down, but not down far engough to get us back into our defined downchannel. I think the trade will go higher today. Dollar's up (UUP) against the Euro this AM, and that usually means a down market, but the support for the stronger Euro may weaken over the trading hours. Will see.

    Anyway, I expect a close inside yesterday's range, and up from where we are now.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Well, it looks like ol' Rock has locked another one. We have logged another flag day, inside trading.

    It seems Rock's the only commentator and poster left on this blog, so I guess I should say goodnight. and go search another venue.

    Thanks all for your input and for helping me become a better trader.

    Goodnight.

    ReplyDelete
  22. @Rock: I'm still lurking here but have been tied up lately on other things. Hopefully you and others come back but if you don't it's been a nice ride and great to "know" you all. Everything runs its course eventually.

    Funny thing is - I actually think that a major top is forming right now. Just a funny inkling that I have based on some "Manny indicators". Of course, I'll probably be wrong but wouldn't it be incredible if we all left this blog just as THE major turn was forming?

    ReplyDelete
  23. Rock - Mannwich, I am still lurking in the dark corners too, just been very busy with work and family.

    Rock, I have learned a TON and I mean TON of stuff from you, however I believe the market is being heavily maniputed by the Fed, HFT and other factors and currently my skill level is not there to feel comfortable jumping in.

    Just like with anything, you need to learn and practice what you learn and hone your skills from there.

    A good teacher does not just get up and start teaching one day, a good police officer takes years to get good at their job.

    I believe I have the ability to be a good trader and someday soon the time will be right for me and it has been nothing but a pleasure to learn from yours, Mannwiches, WolfStreets and many others experiences.

    Saddly, things have slowly turned and the core group has dwindled away - So if you do decide to close up shop, please let us know where you decide to hang your hat.

    The same with all others.

    Take Care.

    Mangy Mutt

    ReplyDelete
  24. Ditto that, Mangy. Let us know where you end up, Rock. We shall follow.

    Too bad Thor has disappeared. I hope he's doing well.

    ReplyDelete
  25. And there she goes. Got a bad feeling this time.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Complacency still seems high to me, which is usually when Mr. Market gives us a lesson. Where's the PPT when you need him? Benny? Benny?

    ReplyDelete
  27. One additional comment:

    A little boy goes to his dad and asks, 'What is Politics?'

    Dad says, 'Well son, let me try to explain it this way:

    I am the head of the family, so call me
    The President.

    Your mother is the administrator of the money, so we call her the Government.

    We are here to take care of your needs, so we will call you The People .

    The nanny, we will consider her the Working Class.

    And your baby brother, we will call him the Future.

    Now think about that and see if it makes sense.'

    So the little boy! Goes off to bed thinking about what Dad has said.

    Later that night, he hears his baby brother crying, so he gets up to check on him.

    He finds that the baby has severely Soiled his diaper.

    So the little boy goes to his parent's room and finds his mother asleep. Not wanting to wake her, he goes to the nanny's room Finding the door locked, he peeks in the keyhole and sees his father in bed with the nanny. He gives up and goes back to bed.

    The next morning, the little boy say's to his father, 'Dad, I think I understand the concept of politics now.'

    The father says, 'Good, son, tell me in your own words what you think politics is all about.'

    The little boy replies,
    'The President is screwing the Working Class while the Government is sound asleep.
    The People are being ignored and the
    Future is in deep shit."

    ReplyDelete
  28. Rock that about sums it all up

    Mutt

    ReplyDelete
  29. Thanks Rock, good one.

    Talking about politics, we've got French presidential elections here tomorrow. I believe there's going to be a massive vote for the "get out of the Euro" opinion. Probably won't make it into the second round though (surveys say second round will be the main 2 dinosaurs' parties).

    I know France doesn't account for much in the bigger picture, but still. Can make quite some noise in the markets.

    As Manny put it, would be cool if this blog would make an exit in tune with the biggest short ever.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Take care all. Thanks for all the fun, kindness and insights. Thanks Rock for the lessons, as Mutt said, you've been a good teacher. Not sure I'll ever get back into the markets though.

    May you all be well and at peace.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Looking like an ugly day in the markets shaping up today. I think we should all come back for a reunion if/when this shit hits the again, which could be sometime soon.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Mannwich - it sure does look like an ugly day, but with all the market manipulation who knows where things will end up.

    Hey Wolfsteet, nice to see ya.

    Mangy Mutt

    ReplyDelete
  33. @Mannwhich: I'll still be lurking around;)

    @Mutt: always a pleasure.

    Meanwhile, a little bit of nostalgia, for all my fellow bears who missed the bull market back in the beginning of 2009 (well, it didn't "miss" me at least!), always a fun watch: Hitler Misses the Bull Market.

    See you.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Sorry I missed you Anonymous, but I was in the bathroom TCBing (If you know what I mean)

    Sadly we are winding down, there has been a lot of great effort and hard work, put into this sight, but unfortunatly the regular posters have slowly peeled away.

    And even though Rock is a store house, the few of us that remained had/have no trust in the current market and even though we do not want it to, life goes the way it wants to go.


    Mangy Mutt

    ReplyDelete
  35. Disappeared into thin air!

    ReplyDelete
  36. As opposed to obese air?

    Mutt

    ReplyDelete
  37. I think our "shutting down" this blog coincided with THE market top. That's been my suspicion and I'm sticking with it.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Manny you man this shop? Where do you hang these day?

    ReplyDelete
  39. Hey, where is everybody? Isn't it time for a reunion, even for one day?!

    ReplyDelete
  40. Anybody home? Is the blog gone?

    ReplyDelete
  41. Manny, where are you these days?

    ReplyDelete
  42. Hello all. Hope everyone is doing ok. For the record, I've dumped my SDS some weeks ago, and I've gone full long today.

    A sure sign that the crash is imminent. lol.

    Take care.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Who was the anonymous? I can't believe folks still check this from time to time.

    Miss you all, but don't really follow economic news anymore and definitely not the markets. Had my fill I guess.

    Hope everyone is well.

    Thor/John

    ReplyDelete
  44. "Canadian to Lead Bank of England" Another GS pawn. gg

    ReplyDelete
  45. Happy New Year.Enjoying my AAPL long position today. Yeah... Ive turned optimistic, who would have guessed? Tired of the end of the world cassandras.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Geez, look at AAPL. Guess I shouldn't have spoken about me being long this stock. Glad I did break even some days ago on that one. Hehe.

    ReplyDelete
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  56. WolfStreetInThePitAgainMarch 4, 2013 at 4:09 PM

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  75. WolfStreetBackInThePitMarch 22, 2013 at 2:15 PM

    Some short squeezing at play on Apple breaking the 460$ line? Hehe...

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  76. Having a bad day here. Bought a stock which stochastics were in overbought territory, and which had already formed a "key reversal day" pattern. So many mistakes professor Rock would have yelled at me for. Got stopped out of that position, with a meaningfull loss. Meanwhile I' ve added to a little short winner position. We'll see...

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  79. WolfStreetStillInThePitApril 5, 2013 at 9:15 AM

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    "Economists polled by MarketWatch expected the number of new jobs to increase by 190,000 last month"

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    Meanwhile, I'm mostly long...

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